The effect of age on COVID-19 patient's outcome

Abstract

Background: The first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in Wuhan, China, in late 2019. In India, the first case was reported on 30.01.2020, and first COVID-19 death occurred on 10.03.2020. The case fatality rate (CFR) was 3.4% estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 03.03.2020. All age groups had significantly higher mortality compared with the immediately younger age group. The largest increase in mortality risk was observed in patients aged 60 to 69 years compared with those aged 50 to 59 years. Objective: The aim of this study is to determine the effect of age on COVID-19 patient's outcome. Methods: All the secondary data were collected either from the Indian institute statistics, Bangalore website, or COVID-19 india website, or GitHub website, or Indian government websites. The effect of age on COVID-19 patient's outcome was determined. Results: Age at first quartile was 50 years in the deceased group, whereas in recovered, it was 25 years. The median age in the deceased group and recovered group were 59 and 34 years, respectively. Significant difference was observed in age between the deceased and recovered group. Age was showing a medium effect size (0.574) in the outcome of the COVID-19. The cut-off value of age for estimating risk of death was established by using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The cut-off value was 48 years. The sensitivity was 77.5% and the specificity was 78.8%. More than 48 years age group had a 13 times higher risk than the less than 48 years age group. Area under the curve was 0.855 (95% CI: 0.846–0.864). Conclusions: This study suggests that the strong association between the age and outcome of COVID-19 patients. We can predict the outcome of COVID-19 patient based on their age. The outcome of COVID-19 patient prediction may give better results with associated comorbid conditions. The cut-off value of age for outcome was 48 years.