A Methodology to Combine Shaking and Ground Failure Models for Forecasting Seismic Damage to Buried Pipeline Networks

Abstract

How does an earthquake affect buried pipeline networks? It is well known that the seismic performance of buried pipelines depends on ground failures (GFs) as well as strong ground shaking (SGS), but it is unclear how the various types of earthquake hazards should be collectively combined, as existing methodologies tend to examine each of the earthquake hazards separately. In this article, we develop a probability-based methodology to consistently combine SGS with three types of GF (surface faulting, liquefaction, and landslide) for forecasting seismic damage in buried pipeline networks from a given earthquake rupture scenario. Using a gas transmission pipeline example, we illustrate how the proposed methodology enables others (e.g., researchers, pipeline operators who manage distribution lines, and consultants) to modularly combine various models such as those for estimating probability of GF, permanent ground displacements, and pipeline fragility. Finally, we compare the proposed methodology against the Hazus methodology to explore implications from considering each hazard one at a time.