Prediction of Road Accident Risk for Vehicle Fleet Based on Statistically Processed Tire Wear Model

IF 0.8 4区工程技术 Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Promet-Traffic & Transportation Pub Date : 2022-07-12 DOI:10.7307/ptt.v34i4.3997

R. Pečeliūnas, V. Žuraulis, P. Droździel, S. Pukalskas

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The goal of the paper is to investigate the impact of tire tread depth on road accident risk and to develop an accident rate prediction model. The state of 4288 vehicle tires using tread depth gauge was inspected and processed statistically. The tread depth of the most worn tire from each vehicle was registered for further analy-sis. Based on the collected data, a statistical tire tread depth model for an insurance company vehicle fleet had been developed. The conformity of the gamma distribu-tion to the data was verified upon applying the Pearson compatibility criterion. The paper provides the histo-grams of the frequencies of tire tread depths and the theoretical curves of the distribution density. The prob-ability of the accident risk depending on the tire tread depth (adaptive risk index) was calculated applying the formed distributions and risk index dependence on the tire tread depth for the inspected vehicle fleet. Accord-ing to the developed prediction model, an upgrade of the regulation for the minimum allowed tire tread depth by 2 mm (up to 3.6 mm) could reduce road accident risk (caused by poor adhesion to road surface) to 19.3% for the chosen vehicle fleet. Such models are useful for road safety experts, insurance companies and accident cost evaluation specialists by predicting expenses related to insurance events.

查看原文本刊更多论文

基于统计处理轮胎磨损模型的车队道路事故风险预测

本文的目的是研究轮胎胎面深度对道路事故风险的影响，并建立事故率预测模型。采用胎面深度仪对4288条车用轮胎进行了状态检测和统计处理。每辆车磨损最严重的轮胎的胎面深度被记录下来，以便进一步分析。在收集数据的基础上，建立了保险公司车队轮胎胎面深度统计模型。应用Pearson相容标准验证了gamma分布与数据的一致性。给出了轮胎胎面深度频率的直方图和分布密度的理论曲线。应用所形成的分布和风险指数与轮胎胎面深度的依赖关系，计算了事故风险与轮胎胎面深度的概率关系(自适应风险指数)。根据所建立的预测模型，将轮胎最小允许胎面深度的规定提高2毫米(最高3.6毫米)，可以将所选车辆的道路事故风险(由路面附着力差引起)降低到19.3%。这些模型通过预测与保险事件相关的费用，对道路安全专家、保险公司和事故成本评估专家很有用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Promet-Traffic & Transportation 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

20.00%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： This scientific journal publishes scientific papers in the area of technical sciences, field of transport and traffic technology. The basic guidelines of the journal, which support the mission - promotion of transport science, are: relevancy of published papers and reviewer competency, established identity in the print and publishing profile, as well as other formal and informal details. The journal organisation consists of the Editorial Board, Editors, Reviewer Selection Committee and the Scientific Advisory Committee. The received papers are subject to peer review in accordance with the recommendations for international scientific journals. The papers published in the journal are placed in sections which explain their focus in more detail. The sections are: transportation economy, information and communication technology, intelligent transport systems, human-transport interaction, intermodal transport, education in traffic and transport, traffic planning, traffic and environment (ecology), traffic on motorways, traffic in the cities, transport and sustainable development, traffic and space, traffic infrastructure, traffic policy, transport engineering, transport law, safety and security in traffic, transport logistics, transport technology, transport telematics, internal transport, traffic management, science in traffic and transport, traffic engineering, transport in emergency situations, swarm intelligence in transportation engineering. The Journal also publishes information not subject to review, and classified under the following headings: book and other reviews, symposia, conferences and exhibitions, scientific cooperation, anniversaries, portraits, bibliographies, publisher information, news, etc.