Electoral Violence in Zanzibar: Drivers and Early Warning Mechanisms

Abstract

Elections are an integral part of any democracy. They serve as a mechanism for legitimising a political system – its succession of government and leaders – for linking political institutions with voters, and for holding the elected government and leaders accountable to the electorate. Yet, due to the combative nature of competition for political power in high-stake contexts, elections may lead to violence. Usually this happens if key stakeholders anticipate the proceedings will not be free and fair, while those seeking to retain or gain political power show no qualms about resorting to extraordinary measures such as using force in order to win. Sometimes there exist underlying causes of electoral violence such as exclusion, inequality, or a history of ethnic tensions. Zanzibar, a semi-autonomous group of islands off the mainland coast of the United Republic of Tanzania, exhibits such a case whereby almost every one of its general elections has been marred with violence. Today, as the concern escalates over threats of immanent physical combat related to elections in so-called ‘advanced’ democracies, it is illuminating to revisit the drivers of electoral violence in Zanzibar, and to reconsider the efficacy of its early warning mechanisms, since the inception of Zanzibar’s multiparty politics in 1992.