Using econometric models to forecast fixed asset investments

Abstract

One of the key factors in the country’s GDP growth is reproducible capital, which lays the foundation for the production of products, works and services. Accordingly, the study of the state, structure and dynamics of the dominant component, fixed assets, is one of the priority tasks of statistics and econometrics. This implies the purpose of the study, which is to assess the predictive capabilities of econometric models. To achieve this goal, a pool of mathematical-statistical and econometric methods was used, in particular tabular and graphic, descriptive statistics, correlation-regression, adaptive modeling. The main results include: analysis of the structure of investments did not find new or hidden patterns, so investments are directed to the modernization or renewal of capital-intensive areas – these are buildings, structures and land (about 40% of the total investment), the main industries are industry and transport; visual analysis of the dynamics of the temporary series of investments in fixed assets showed the presence of a long-term, seasonal and situational component; the construction of 6 econometric models reflecting the complex dynamics of the macro indicator in question made it possible to distinguish two adaptive models belonging to the group; thus, the best forecast opportunities for complex dynamics of investments in Russian fixed assets are observed in the three-parameter exponential smoothing model and SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,1,0) [4]. The results obtained in the course of the study will be useful for scientists involved in modeling and predicting complex-structured time series