Trend Analysis and ARIMA Modeling to Assess Meteorological and Surface Parameters In Ranchi, India During Pre-Monsoon Months

Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences

GIS-Business Pub Date : 2020-02-09 DOI:10.26643/gis.v15i2.18899

Poulomi Chakravarty, M. Kumar

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The assessment of the human-induced climate change on a global level can be carried out only after the study of local and regional climate change patterns. This study was an attempt to establish a link between regional climate and the surface parameters. The study was carried out for Ranchi, India to assess the changes in climatic pattern over the years (1901-2016) and applied Mann-Kendall Trend analysis test. The pre-monsoon period was chosen due to high intensity and number of thunderstorms taking place in the study area. Maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), rainfall (P) &diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the months (March, April & May) were studied, and a significant negative trend in Tmax and DTR was observed. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was applied to fit the datasets and predict 5 values for the meteorological parameters, and the model depicted positive temperature trends and negative rainfall and DTR trends in the future. Land surface process parameters such as sensible heat flux, momentum flux, frictional velocity, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and net radiation for Ranchi were also fit into the ARIMA model, and the fitness of the model and predictions were determined.

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季风前几个月印度兰契气象和地面参数的趋势分析和ARIMA模拟

只有对局地和区域气候变化模式进行研究，才能在全球水平上对人类活动引起的气候变化进行评估。这项研究试图建立区域气候和地表参数之间的联系。该研究是在印度兰契进行的，以评估多年来(1901-2016)气候模式的变化，并应用了曼-肯德尔趋势分析测试。选择季风前期是由于研究区雷暴的强度和数量都很高。对3月、4月和5月的最高气温(Tmax)、最低气温(Tmin)、降雨量(P)和日温差(DTR)进行了研究，发现3月、4月和5月的最高气温(Tmax)和日温差(DTR)呈显著负向变化。采用自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型对数据集进行拟合，预测了5个气象参数值，模型描绘了未来气温的正趋势和降水和DTR的负趋势。将Ranchi地区的感热通量、动量通量、摩擦速度、短波辐射、长波辐射和净辐射等地表过程参数拟合到ARIMA模型中，并对模型的拟合度和预测结果进行了验证。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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GIS-Business Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (all)

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期刊介绍： GIS Business with ISSN no. 1430-3663 is bimonthly UGC Approved journal for publication of research papers related to planning, managment, GIS, geography, geology, geoinformatics, earth sciences, remote sensing, satellites, GPS, coodinate systems, urban planning, spatial studies, human settlements, and many more related subjects. Remote sensing is the art and science of making measurements of the earth using sensors on airplanes or satellites and geographic information system (GIS) is a computer-based tool for mapping and analyzing feature events on earth. It integrates common database operations, such as query and statistical analysis, with maps. The open access journal GIS Business is a scientific journal that includes a wide range of fields in its discipline and reports the acquisition of information about an object or phenomenon without making physical contact with the object. It allows to view and analyse multiple layers of spatially related information associated with a geographic region/location. It publishes all concerned research findings and discoveries pertaining to the ingredients and their mode of therapeutic nature to create a platform for the authors to make their contribution towards the journal.