Analysis of rainfall variability and probability in Theni District, India

Abstract

Crop planning based probability analysis aids in increasing production. A crop planning research was conducted in the Theni district by examining probability analysis over a 40-year period (1982-2021) using weekly and monthly rainfall data. The mean annual rainfall in the Theni district was 1100.2 mm spread over 90 rainy days. The probability study revealed that obtaining 20mm rainfall per week received for 8 weeks (38 to 45th week), which is beneficial for sowing and planting. On the other side, October had the greatest mean monthly rainfall (191.8 mm), followed by November (147.9 mm). The main crops farmed in this area are rice, sugarcane, and bananas, but they should be replaced with maize, pulses, cowpea, sorghum, ragi, and minor millets since they can grow in a shorter time period and yield higher. Key words: Rainfall, Markov chain analysis, initial and conditional probability and crop planning