Forecasting Commercial Vehicle Production Using Quantitative Techniques

IF 2.4 Q2 ECONOMICS

Contemporary Economics Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI:10.5709/ce.1897-9254.496

Badri Toppur, T. Thomas

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Firms selling commercial vehicles often face difficulties due to recessions in the globalized economy. Manufacturers are keen to anticipate demand in future quarters to optimize their production schedules. In this study, commercial vehicle production data from a leading Indian automotive manufacturer were analyzed us- ing moving averages, exponential smoothing, seasonal decomposition and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with the goal of forecasting. The results reveal that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model effectively predicts the sectoral downturn coinciding with the global financial crisis of 2008. As life returns to normal after the financial crisis caused by COVID-19, such models may be used to strategically move past the disruption.

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使用定量技术预测商用车产量

由于全球化经济的衰退，销售商用车的公司经常面临困难。制造商热衷于预测未来几个季度的需求，以优化他们的生产计划。本研究采用移动平均、指数平滑、季节分解和自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型对印度某领先汽车制造商的商用车生产数据进行分析，并进行预测。结果表明，ARIMA(0,1,1)模型有效地预测了2008年全球金融危机期间的行业衰退。随着2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)引发的金融危机后生活恢复正常，这些模型可能被用于战略性地度过这种混乱。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Contemporary Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

9.50%

发文量

审稿时长

24 weeks

期刊介绍： The mission of the Contemporary Economics is to publish advanced theoretical and empirical research in economics, finance, accounting and management with the noticeable contribution and impact to the development of those disciplines and preferably with practice relevancies. All entirety of methods is desirable, including a falsification of conventional understanding, theory building through inductive or qualitative research, first empirical testing of a theory, meta-analysis with theoretical implications, constructive replication that clarifies the boundaries or range of a theory for theoretical research as well as qualitative, quantitative, field, laboratory, meta-analytic, and combination for an empirical research. This clear priority for comprehensive manuscripts containing a methodology-based theoretical and empirical research with implications and recommendations for policymaking does not exclude manuscripts entirely focused on theory or methodology. Manuscripts that raise significant, actual topics of international relevance will be highly appreciated. The interdisciplinary approach including – besides economic, financial, accounting or managerial –also other aspects, is welcomed.