Probabilistic technological forecasts using precursor events

J. Martino
{"title":"Probabilistic technological forecasts using precursor events","authors":"J. Martino","doi":"10.1109/PICMET.1991.183714","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The author describes the use of the method of maximum entropy for generating a probability distribution for the time lag between demonstration of a device and its market introduction. Historical data are used to generate a probability distribution for the lag times between a specific type of precursor event and a specific type of event to be forecast. The probability distribution can be used to estimate the risks of either planning to commercialize it and possibly allowing a competitor to commercialize it first. Examples from the aerospace and automotive industries are used to illustrate the technique. In particular, attention is given to the lag times between commercialization of several aluminum alloys and the first flight of the first production aircraft to incorporate those alloys.<<ETX>>","PeriodicalId":22349,"journal":{"name":"Technology Management : the New International Language","volume":"20 1","pages":"562-565"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1991-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"9","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Technology Management : the New International Language","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/PICMET.1991.183714","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9

Abstract

The author describes the use of the method of maximum entropy for generating a probability distribution for the time lag between demonstration of a device and its market introduction. Historical data are used to generate a probability distribution for the lag times between a specific type of precursor event and a specific type of event to be forecast. The probability distribution can be used to estimate the risks of either planning to commercialize it and possibly allowing a competitor to commercialize it first. Examples from the aerospace and automotive industries are used to illustrate the technique. In particular, attention is given to the lag times between commercialization of several aluminum alloys and the first flight of the first production aircraft to incorporate those alloys.<>
利用前驱事件的概率技术预测
作者描述了使用最大熵的方法来生成一个设备演示和市场引入之间的时间间隔的概率分布。历史数据用于生成特定类型的前兆事件与待预测的特定类型事件之间滞后时间的概率分布。概率分布可以用来估计计划将其商业化和可能允许竞争对手首先将其商业化的风险。从航空航天和汽车工业的例子来说明该技术。特别要注意的是,从几种铝合金的商业化到采用这些合金的第一架生产型飞机的首次飞行之间的滞后时间。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信