Credit Transmission, Liquidity, and Bank Capital in Colombia

Abstract

This document analyses monetary policy effects on transmission of credit interest rates in Colombia with particular attention to the period of global liquidity spurred by the COVID-pandemic during 2020-2022. Challenges for banks operating in Colombia are twofold: they face increasing banking competition (reinforced by FINTECH) and increasing credit risks due to deteriorating macro-financial conditions after a -6.8% real-GDP and an average of 16% in unemployment over 2020. Expected rebound for 2021 looks mild at 4% in real-GDP and staggered unemployment averaging 14%.Credit transmission has been fairly rapid in corporate credits, but slow in consumption loans, given contract prevalence at fix-rates (87% of total) and extensions averaging 6 years in the latter. Gains in credit transmission would require: i) deepening of the swaps market of interest rates, currently focused at OTC instead of the registered market;and ii) increasing the floating portion related to the IBR (bid-market over the central bank repo-window), currently covering only 12% of the portfolio. This would be the Colombian version of the worldwide move from LIBOR into SFAR. However, this deepening of capital markets in Colombia hinge crucially in preserving the “investment grade” status over 2021-2022, currently facing unanimous “negative outlook” from the rating agencies. Finally, compression of financial wedges, increasing credit risks, and higher liquidity-capital requirements (over 2021-2024, under Basle III) represent significant challenges for banks operating in Colombia. Financial Superintendence recently reported Colombia as complying with Basle III, after the transition period of 2016-2019, joining the 42% of LATAM countries in that category.