{"title":"Epidemic progression and vaccination in a heterogeneous population. Application to the Covid-19 epidemic","authors":"Vitaly Volpert , Malay Banerjee , Swarnali Sharma","doi":"10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100940","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The paper is devoted to a compartmental epidemiological model of infection progression in a heterogeneous population which consists of two groups with high disease transmission (HT) and low disease transmission (LT) potentials. Final size and duration of epidemic, the total and current maximal number of infected individuals are estimated depending on the structure of the population. It is shown that with the same basic reproduction number <span><math><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></math></span> in the beginning of epidemic, its further progression depends on the ratio between the two groups. Therefore, fitting the data in the beginning of epidemic and the determination of <span><math><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></math></span> are not sufficient to predict its long time behaviour. Available data on the Covid-19 epidemic allows the estimation of the proportion of the HT and LT groups. Estimated structure of the population is used for the investigation of the influence of vaccination on further epidemic development. The result of vaccination strongly depends on the proportion of vaccinated individuals between the two groups. Vaccination of the HT group acts to stop the epidemic and essentially decreases the total number of infected individuals at the end of epidemic and the current maximal number of infected individuals while vaccination of the LT group only acts to protect vaccinated individuals from further infection.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50559,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Complexity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100940","citationCount":"8","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecological Complexity","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1476945X21000337","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Abstract
The paper is devoted to a compartmental epidemiological model of infection progression in a heterogeneous population which consists of two groups with high disease transmission (HT) and low disease transmission (LT) potentials. Final size and duration of epidemic, the total and current maximal number of infected individuals are estimated depending on the structure of the population. It is shown that with the same basic reproduction number in the beginning of epidemic, its further progression depends on the ratio between the two groups. Therefore, fitting the data in the beginning of epidemic and the determination of are not sufficient to predict its long time behaviour. Available data on the Covid-19 epidemic allows the estimation of the proportion of the HT and LT groups. Estimated structure of the population is used for the investigation of the influence of vaccination on further epidemic development. The result of vaccination strongly depends on the proportion of vaccinated individuals between the two groups. Vaccination of the HT group acts to stop the epidemic and essentially decreases the total number of infected individuals at the end of epidemic and the current maximal number of infected individuals while vaccination of the LT group only acts to protect vaccinated individuals from further infection.
期刊介绍:
Ecological Complexity is an international journal devoted to the publication of high quality, peer-reviewed articles on all aspects of biocomplexity in the environment, theoretical ecology, and special issues on topics of current interest. The scope of the journal is wide and interdisciplinary with an integrated and quantitative approach. The journal particularly encourages submission of papers that integrate natural and social processes at appropriately broad spatio-temporal scales.
Ecological Complexity will publish research into the following areas:
• All aspects of biocomplexity in the environment and theoretical ecology
• Ecosystems and biospheres as complex adaptive systems
• Self-organization of spatially extended ecosystems
• Emergent properties and structures of complex ecosystems
• Ecological pattern formation in space and time
• The role of biophysical constraints and evolutionary attractors on species assemblages
• Ecological scaling (scale invariance, scale covariance and across scale dynamics), allometry, and hierarchy theory
• Ecological topology and networks
• Studies towards an ecology of complex systems
• Complex systems approaches for the study of dynamic human-environment interactions
• Using knowledge of nonlinear phenomena to better guide policy development for adaptation strategies and mitigation to environmental change
• New tools and methods for studying ecological complexity