Socio-Economic Factors of Population Reproduction in Russia and in the Context of Federal Districts

Abstract

The purpose of the study. Establishing the specifics of reproduction of the Russian population in the modern conditions of economic development in general and in the context of federal districts.Materials and methods. In the process of writing the article, the authors used regulatory legal acts of the Government of the Russian Federation, materials of the Federal State Statistics Service, the works of individual scientists and public organizations on the problems of population reproduction. In the course of the work, such statistical research methods as tabular and graphical methods, analysis of indexes of dynamics series were used.Results. The population of the Russian Federation and the components of its change for 1990-2021, the dynamics of fertility and mortality rates for 1950-2021 were studied, the reasons for the decline in the total fertility rate and the net coefficient of population reproduction, including in the context of federal districts, were considered.Conclusion. Currently, the population of the Russian Federation has not reached the level of 1990. Fluctuations in the total population growth are mainly caused by fluctuations in migration growth. In conditions of low fertility and high mortality, the migration component is the determining factor of population growth. Since 1992, the natural decline of the population has been established (with the exception of 2013-2015). The amount of migration growth exceeded the natural decline in 2009-2017, which ensured the overall population growth.The intersection of the curves of the dynamics of the fertility rate and the mortality rate in the Russian Federation was established in 1992 and 2016. From 2012 to 2016 the coefficient of natural growth is approaching zero, and then a downward trend is formed, that is, a decrease in the population.The main reason for the decline in the birth rate in Russia is the demographic, socio-economic state of society, in which a steady decline in the total fertility rate, demographic aging of the population, and changes in the family structure have been established. Over the past 30 years, there has been a narrowed reproduction of the population in the country, which can be considered as a potential depopulation.A high variation of the total fertility rate in the context of federal districts of Russia has been established. In the Central Federal District and the North-Western Federal Districts for the period 1990-2021, the total fertility rate did not exceed the average Russian level of this index. Over the past three years (2019-2021), the total fertility rate has been decreasing in the Northwestern, Southern, Volga, and Siberian Federal Districts.In order to eliminate negative trends in the birth rate in the regions, it is necessary to create jobs, form normal housing conditions, ensure sustainable growth in real income of the population, organize a modern level of healthcare, education, develop a network of preschool institutions, and support families.