Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of energy consumption in substation buildings at the planning stage

IF 2.2 4区工程技术 Q2 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Journal of Building Performance Simulation Pub Date : 2022-11-18 DOI:10.1080/19401493.2022.2141881

Juanli Guo, Zhoupeng Wang, Mingchen Li, Yongyun Jin

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study is the first to conduct a global sensitivity analysis to identify the crucial variables that have an impact on the energy consumption of substations. The peak cooling and heating energy consumption, as well as the annual cooling and heating energy consumption of a substation in Shandong, are all simulated basing the Monte Carlo method. The simulation outputs are discussed by uncertainty analysis to obtain more accurate energy consumption thresholds. Subsequently, the treed Gaussian process and the standardized rank regression coefficient are used to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the simulation outputs. The results of the two global sensitivity analyses are practically the same, demonstrating that robustness can be ensured by simultaneously using two methods based on different theories. In addition, this study provides an efficient method for the energy-saving retrofitting of the existing substation and the energy-saving design of green substations in the future.

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规划阶段变电站建筑能耗的不确定性量化与敏感性分析

本研究首次进行了全球敏感性分析，以确定影响变电站能耗的关键变量。采用蒙特卡罗方法，对山东某变电站的冷热峰值能耗和年冷热能耗进行了模拟。通过不确定性分析对仿真结果进行讨论，得到更精确的能耗阈值。随后，使用树状高斯过程和标准化秩回归系数对模拟输出进行全局灵敏度分析。两种方法的全局敏感性分析结果基本一致，表明基于不同理论的两种方法同时使用可以保证鲁棒性。此外，本研究也为现有变电站的节能改造和未来绿色变电站的节能设计提供了有效的方法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Building Performance Simulation CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY-

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

12.00%

发文量

审稿时长

12 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Building Performance Simulation (JBPS) aims to make a substantial and lasting contribution to the international building community by supporting our authors and the high-quality, original research they submit. The journal also offers a forum for original review papers and researched case studies We welcome building performance simulation contributions that explore the following topics related to buildings and communities: -Theoretical aspects related to modelling and simulating the physical processes (thermal, air flow, moisture, lighting, acoustics). -Theoretical aspects related to modelling and simulating conventional and innovative energy conversion, storage, distribution, and control systems. -Theoretical aspects related to occupants, weather data, and other boundary conditions. -Methods and algorithms for optimizing the performance of buildings and communities and the systems which service them, including interaction with the electrical grid. -Uncertainty, sensitivity analysis, and calibration. -Methods and algorithms for validating models and for verifying solution methods and tools. -Development and validation of controls-oriented models that are appropriate for model predictive control and/or automated fault detection and diagnostics. -Techniques for educating and training tool users. -Software development techniques and interoperability issues with direct applicability to building performance simulation. -Case studies involving the application of building performance simulation for any stage of the design, construction, commissioning, operation, or management of buildings and the systems which service them are welcomed if they include validation or aspects that make a novel contribution to the knowledge base.