Do anticipated tax changes matter? Further evidence from the United Kingdom

Abstract

This paper provides some evidence against the rational expectations—permanent income model of consumption behaviour and the Ricardian Equivalence proposition by testing the responsiveness of spending to the implementation of pre-announced changes in income taxes. A long series of recurrent episodes of this kind for the United Kingdom (1960–1990) is examined. It is found that consumption expenditure strongly reacts to (pre-announced) fiscally-induced changes in current disposable income. This effect is attributable to the semi-durable and durable component of spending.