Letalidad peatonal en Ciudad de México: análisis general desde una perspectiva de racionalidad limitada

Abstract

Considering a theoretical perspective of bounded rationality of drivers and pedestrians in pedestrian collisions, a research was carried out about pedes-trian lethality rate in Mexico City considering attribu-table causes to persons or other causes, place (intersections and non-intersections of roads), time of the day, day, month, local municipalities and year of the accident from 1997 to 2017. To the analysis was estimated a Generalized Poisson Model. With the model results, the relative risk of pedestrian death after being run over was analyzed. There are three remarkable results: Lethality and relative risk of deaths increased due to non-attributable causes of the agents. Secondly, that lethality is higher in non-intersections and that the relative risk of deaths in intersections is lower in percentage terms concer-ning non-intersections. Third, that lethality and the relative risk of deaths are greater in attributable causes of pedestrians than in attributable causes of drivers. These results may constitute part of the un-certainty and information constraints that describe bounded rationality. The conclusion is that crossing pedestrians at non-interference crossings can in-crease lethality and increase death's relative risk. Also, it was observed that causes unrelated to agent’s actions (pedestrians and drivers) cause mo-re pedestrian deaths.