Econometric Analysis of Sustainable National Economy Development

Abstract

Purpose. The study objective was to model conditions, mechanisms and opportunities to achieve sustainable development parameters for the national economy. Меthods. Analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analytical grouping and special (abstraction, modelling, etc.) methods of studying economic phenomena and processes have been used. Results. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of GDP growth rates, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, oxide and carbon dioxide emissions during 1991-2017, the cycle of their change lasting 3 - 5 years has been proved. It has been found out that the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in Ukraine is a specific one due to the "turning points". According to the results of comparing the cyclicality of per capita income growth rates, GDP indexes with the dynamics of dependence between the hazardous substances emissions and per capita income and GDP in actual prices, it is found that they do not always coincide. It gives grounds to make a conclusion about the presence of lag between the emissions volumes changes and values of per capita income and GDP in actual prices. The conclusions are grounded on the comparison of the dynamics of GDP growth rates, income per capita, pollutant emissions and the parameters of their mutual correlation. It has been proposed to carry out coordinated policy referring its economic, social and environmental components, taking into account the time lag to create the conditions for the EKC curve parameters in the economy of Ukraine. Conclusions. . Based on the analysis of GDP growth rates dynamics, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon oxide and dioxide emissions, the periodicity (cyclicality) of their change has been proved. In Ukraine, EKC has a specific nature in the form of separate «turning points», without achievement of long-term parameters of the relationship between the hazardous substances emissions and GDP and per capita income values. Thus, the feasibility of developing the agreed policy concerning the economic (GDP value), social (population income level) and environmental components (conservation activity financing and decrease of hazardous substances emissions) taking into account the time lag, which will create the conditions for achieving not only temporary values, but also long-term parameters of EKC curve in the Ukrainian economy, was substantiated. The obtained results allow to forecast sustainable development parameters of Ukraine for the future.