Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Hydro-meteorological Ecosystem Services and Water Stress in Lake Kyoga Catchment

Abstract

Through review of several studies on climate change, an attempt was made to investigate the sensitivity of water resources to climate change over Lake Kyoga catchment. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of climatic extremes that can lead to loss of life and property. This study was mainly to analyze the water stress arising from the impacts of climate change on hydro-meteorological ecosystem services. The methodology of the study consists of analysis of available meteorological and hydrological observations, analysis of Global Weather Data for ArcGIS/SWAT output data and finally seasonal performance of precipitation and temperature using Climate Predictability Tool outputs. The Correlation Percentage change was used to estimate the rate of change of flow and water levels under a changed climate. The outputs for different stations showed that climate change has already affected water resources in Lake Kyoga catchment with continuous reduction in water levels of 6%. The results of the study revealed that climate change is likely to increase precipitation by 10-20% received during the wet seasons resulting in higher stream flow and a reduction of 20-40% of precipitation during the dry seasons. The GCMs also demonstrated an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures of 1 to 30C by 2065 with minimum temperatures increasing more rapidly compared to the maximum temperatures for the two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The strategies for adaptation and mitigation measures have been identified.