Predicting Soil Carbon Sequestration and Harvestable C-Biomass of Rice and Wheat by DNDC Model

Abstract

Several biogeochemical models have been applied to understand the potential effects of management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration, crop growth, and yield. In this study, the denitrification and decomposition (DNDC) model was used to simulate soil SOC dynamics and harvested C-biomass in rice–wheat rotation under organic/inorganic fertilization with conventional tillage (CT) and reduced tillage (RT). Before calibration, DNDC underpredicted harvestable grain C-biomass of rice where percent difference (PD) varied from 29.22% to 42.14%, and over-simulated grain C-biomass of wheat where PD was −55.01% with 50% nitrogen–phosphorus–potassium (NPK) and 50% animal manure applied under the CT treatment. However, after calibration by adjusting default values of soil and crop parameters, DNDC simulated harvestable grain C-biomass of both crops very close to observed values (e.g., average PD ranged from −2.81% to −6.17%). DNDC also predicted the effects of nutrient management practices on grain C-biomass of rice/wheat under CT/RT using d-index (0.76 to 0.96) and the calculated root mean squared error (RMSE of 165.36 to 494.18 kg C ha−1). DNDC simulated SOC trends for rice–wheat using measured values of several statistical indices. Regression analysis between modeled and observed SOC dynamics was significant with R2 ranging from 0.35 to 0.46 (p < 0.01), and intercept ranging from 0.30 to 1.34 (p < 0.65). DNDC demonstrated that combined inorganic and organic fertilization may result in higher C-biomass and more SOC sequestration in rice–wheat systems.