Application of system dynamics model for reservoir performance under future climatic scenarios in Gelevard Dam, Iran

IF 2.1 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

AQUA-Water Infrastructure Ecosystems and Society Pub Date : 2023-06-14 DOI:10.2166/aqua.2023.193

A. Babolhakami, M. A. Gholami Sefidkouhi, A. Emadi

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Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the effects of climate change scenarios on five indicators: reliability, vulnerability, resilience, sustainability, and the deficiency of the Gelevard Dam (GD) in Iran. Downscaling was performed from 2020 to 2040 in the future using the Can Ems2-GCM based on different climate scenarios and employing the support vector machines. The IHACRES model was used to simulate the inflow of GD. The cultivation pattern optimization function was performed by utilizing the LINGO software. Similarly, the flow-storage model was created using Vensim software. The results demonstrated the reduction of inflow by 15, 36, and 37% during RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results showed that if the optimal cultivation pattern (OCP) were to be applied, during different climatic scenarios, water supply would not be difficult in the next 11, 5, and 4 years, respectively, yet after that, water shortage would gradually appear. The findings concluded that although the implementation of OCP would improve the five indicators in all water consumption sectors, the GD reservoir would not be able to answer the demands in the future. Therefore, it would be necessary to implement practices to increase water productivity in all sectors.

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伊朗Gelevard大坝未来气候情景下水库动态系统动力学模型的应用

本研究旨在探讨气候变化情景对伊朗Gelevard大坝(GD)可靠性、脆弱性、恢复力、可持续性和缺乏性五个指标的影响。利用Can Ems2-GCM基于不同气候情景，采用支持向量机对未来2020 - 2040年的尺度进行了降尺度处理。采用ihaacres模型对GD的流入进行了模拟。利用LINGO软件对栽培模式进行优化。同样，利用Vensim软件创建了流库模型。结果表明，在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，流入分别减少了15%、36%和37%。结果表明:在不同气候情景下，采用最优栽培模式(OCP)，分别在未来11年、5年和4年供水困难，但之后将逐渐出现缺水现象。结果表明，虽然实施OCP将改善所有用水部门的五项指标，但广东省水库将无法满足未来的需求。因此，有必要在所有部门实施提高水生产力的做法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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