Application of system dynamics model for reservoir performance under future climatic scenarios in Gelevard Dam, Iran

IF 4.6 Q2 MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS
A. Babolhakami, M. A. Gholami Sefidkouhi, A. Emadi
{"title":"Application of system dynamics model for reservoir performance under future climatic scenarios in Gelevard Dam, Iran","authors":"A. Babolhakami, M. A. Gholami Sefidkouhi, A. Emadi","doi":"10.2166/aqua.2023.193","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n \n This study aimed to investigate the effects of climate change scenarios on five indicators: reliability, vulnerability, resilience, sustainability, and the deficiency of the Gelevard Dam (GD) in Iran. Downscaling was performed from 2020 to 2040 in the future using the Can Ems2-GCM based on different climate scenarios and employing the support vector machines. The IHACRES model was used to simulate the inflow of GD. The cultivation pattern optimization function was performed by utilizing the LINGO software. Similarly, the flow-storage model was created using Vensim software. The results demonstrated the reduction of inflow by 15, 36, and 37% during RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results showed that if the optimal cultivation pattern (OCP) were to be applied, during different climatic scenarios, water supply would not be difficult in the next 11, 5, and 4 years, respectively, yet after that, water shortage would gradually appear. The findings concluded that although the implementation of OCP would improve the five indicators in all water consumption sectors, the GD reservoir would not be able to answer the demands in the future. Therefore, it would be necessary to implement practices to increase water productivity in all sectors.","PeriodicalId":2,"journal":{"name":"ACS Applied Bio Materials","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACS Applied Bio Materials","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2023.193","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the effects of climate change scenarios on five indicators: reliability, vulnerability, resilience, sustainability, and the deficiency of the Gelevard Dam (GD) in Iran. Downscaling was performed from 2020 to 2040 in the future using the Can Ems2-GCM based on different climate scenarios and employing the support vector machines. The IHACRES model was used to simulate the inflow of GD. The cultivation pattern optimization function was performed by utilizing the LINGO software. Similarly, the flow-storage model was created using Vensim software. The results demonstrated the reduction of inflow by 15, 36, and 37% during RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results showed that if the optimal cultivation pattern (OCP) were to be applied, during different climatic scenarios, water supply would not be difficult in the next 11, 5, and 4 years, respectively, yet after that, water shortage would gradually appear. The findings concluded that although the implementation of OCP would improve the five indicators in all water consumption sectors, the GD reservoir would not be able to answer the demands in the future. Therefore, it would be necessary to implement practices to increase water productivity in all sectors.
伊朗Gelevard大坝未来气候情景下水库动态系统动力学模型的应用
本研究旨在探讨气候变化情景对伊朗Gelevard大坝(GD)可靠性、脆弱性、恢复力、可持续性和缺乏性五个指标的影响。利用Can Ems2-GCM基于不同气候情景,采用支持向量机对未来2020 - 2040年的尺度进行了降尺度处理。采用ihaacres模型对GD的流入进行了模拟。利用LINGO软件对栽培模式进行优化。同样,利用Vensim软件创建了流库模型。结果表明,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,流入分别减少了15%、36%和37%。结果表明:在不同气候情景下,采用最优栽培模式(OCP),分别在未来11年、5年和4年供水困难,但之后将逐渐出现缺水现象。结果表明,虽然实施OCP将改善所有用水部门的五项指标,但广东省水库将无法满足未来的需求。因此,有必要在所有部门实施提高水生产力的做法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
ACS Applied Bio Materials
ACS Applied Bio Materials Chemistry-Chemistry (all)
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
2.10%
发文量
464
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信