Quantitative microbial risk assessment indicates very low risk for Vibrio parahaemolyticus foodborne illness from Jeotgal in South Korea

Abstract

In this study, a microbial risk assessment was performed for the bacteria Vibrio parahaemolyticus , which causes a foodborne illness following the consumption of Jeotgal , a fermented seafood in South Korea. The assessment comprised of six stages: product, market, home, consumption, dose-response, and risk. The initial contamination level (IC) was calculated based on the prevalence of V. parahaemolyticus in 90 Jeotgal samples. The kinetic behavior of V. parahaemolyticus was described using predictive models. The data on transportation conditions from manufacturer to market and home were collected through personal communication and from previous studies. Data for the Jeotgal consumption status were obtained, and an appropriate probability distribution was established. The simulation models responding to the scenario were analyzed using the @RISK program. The IC of V. parahaemolyticus was estimated using beta distribution [Beta (1, 91)]. The cell counts during transportation were estimated using Weibull and polynomial models [δ = 1 / (0.0718 – 0.0097 × T + 0.0005 × T 2 )], while the probability distributions for time and temperature were estimated using Pert, Weibull, Uniform, and LogLogistic distributions. Daily average consumption amounts were assessed using the Pareto distribution [0.60284,1.32,Risk Truncate(0,155)]. The results indicated that the risk of V. parahaemolyticus infection through Jeotgal consumption is low in South Korea. simulation. The risk of V. parahaemolyticus infection in Jeotgal was very low, as analyzed by quantitative risk assessment, with respect to the distribution in South Korea. The result suggested that the low contamination level and distribution environment could be important factors to decrease the probability of V. parahaemolyticus -associated foodborne illnesses.