Simulation of Extreme Insured Losses in Natural Catastrophes

Abstract

This article aims to present the application of probability modelling and simulations based on quantile function of extreme insured losses in the world natural catastrophes based on data in time period 1970-2014, published in Swiss Re Sigma No2/2015. Quantile function provides an appropriate and flexible approach to the probability modelling needed to obtain well-fitted tails. We are specifically interested in modelling and simulations the tails of loss distributions. In a number of applications of quantile functions in insurance and reinsurance risk management interest focuses particularly on the extreme observations in the upper tail of probability distribution. Fortunately it is possible to simulate the observations in one tail of distribution without simulating the central values. This advantage will be used for estimate a few extreme high insured losses in the world’s natural catastrophes in future.