Opportunity or Illusion? Risk Perception in Opportunity Evaluation

Abstract

This article describes research conducted to determine which variables influence the opportunity evaluation by emerging market entrepreneurs. The study was conducted with quantitative research techniques, using data from 124 entrepreneurs in micro and small Brazilian enterprises. Hypotheses were tested with confirmatory analyses and using Structural Equations Modelling. According to previous research, results demonstrated that the smaller the perceived risk, the more positively the entrepreneurs will evaluate opportunities, affecting their propensity to act. However, the results of tests to measure correlations between the occurrence of cognitive biases and other variables were not significant, contradicting previous work that has stated that correlations exist. The findings support the concept that variables ignored when analysing our decision-making process are relevant to the result of our decisions. Besides, they may result in inconsistent illusions that can lead the decision-maker into unwarranted confidence in their capacity to understand whether an assessment of opportunity, which is inherent to the entrepreneurial process, is truly an opportunity or an illusion.