Analysis of the Price Change of the Azerbaijani Oil of Azeri Light, using the Monte-Carlo Method in the Conditions of Uncertainty

Abstract

Purpose: This article examines the uncertain conditions of the oil industry in and post crisis period in Azerbaijan Republic in 2015-2017 and during COVID-19 in 2020. Design/Methodology: Existing turmoil in the global economy and volatile oil prices affected the economies of the oil-producing countries. Such instability also affected the economy of Azerbaijan Republic and led to a decrease in its key economic indicators, which leads to apply specific methods for identifying risks and estimating its valuation. Findings: The reasons of the sharp drop in oil and oil products demand have been analysed, using the Monte Carlo techniques and with its impact on Azerbaijan Republic as an example. Practical implications: The author, compiling the forecast for the chosen methodology, clarified forecast for 2018 of oil price of Azerbaijani oil brand Azeri Light in an uncertain environment, and made forecast for coming years, based on these calculations.