Voters Elect Politicians Who Closely Matched Their Preferences

IF 0.6 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Economics Bulletin Pub Date : 2012-07-23 DOI:10.2139/SSRN.2115362

Marco Portmann, D. Stadelmann, R. Eichenberger

引用次数: 2

Abstract

What determines political candidates' election prospects? We match roll call votes of candidates for the majority elected upper house of parliament who were previously in the lower house with the preferences of their constituency as revealed in referenda. Thereby, we obtain a unique and direct measure of past congruence. Politicians who better represented the preferences of their constituency in the past exhibit a significantly and considerably higher probability of election. This provides first evidence for the direct retrospective voting rule, i.e. that voters elect politicians who represented their preferences well.

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选民选出与他们的喜好非常接近的政治家

是什么决定了政治候选人的选举前景?我们将以前在下议院任职的多数当选的议会上院候选人的唱名投票与公民投票中显示的选民的偏好相匹配。因此，我们获得了过去一致性的唯一和直接的度量。过去能更好地代表其选民偏好的政治家，在选举中表现出显著且相当高的可能性。这为直接追溯投票规则提供了第一个证据，即选民选出的政治家很好地代表了他们的偏好。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economics Bulletin ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

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