PREDIKSI HARGA PANGAN DI PASAR TRADISIONAL KOTA SURABAYA DENGAN METODE LSTM

Abstract

Long Short-Term Memory is the development of an artificial neural network that has the ability to overcome the vanishing gradient problem, and makes it possible to remember long-term information, and understand temporal patterns in time series data, so that LSTM has good performance in predicting food prices [1]. In Indonesia, especially in Surabaya, food prices are often unstable. Fluctuations in food prices can be caused by many factors such as weather, growing season and production. Under these conditions, this research was conducted to predict future food prices. The purpose of this study is to apply the LSTM method in predicting food prices so that it can provide maximum results and can be used by the community in making good decisions. In this study the dataset used included 5 types of food, namely rice, beef, chicken eggs, granulated sugar, and cooking oil. The dataset was obtained from the website of the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS Nasional, https://www.bi.go.id/hargapangan). Predictive results are evaluated with RMSE and MAE. RMSE and MAE values of 5 types of food, namely rice 32 and 27, beef 229 and 125, chicken eggs 319 and 213, cooking oil 424 and 215, granulated sugar 30 and 18.