Predicting Responses of Geo-ecological Carbonate Reef Systems to Climate Change: A Conceptual Model and Review

1区 生物学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences
N. Browne, M. Cuttler, Katie Moon, K. Morgan, Claire L. Ross, Carolina Castro‐Sanguino, E. Kennedy, D. Harris, P. Barnes, A. Bauman, E. Beetham, J. L. Bonesso, Y. Bozec, C. Cornwall, S. Dee, T. DeCarlo, Juan D'Olivio, C. Doropoulos, R. Evans, B. Eyre, P. Gatenby, Manuel González-Rivero, S. Hamylton, J. Hansen, R. Lowe, J. Mallela, Mick O'Leary, G. Roff, B. Saunders, Adi Zweifler
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引用次数: 12

Abstract

Coral reefs provide critical ecological and geomorphic (e.g. sediment production for reef-fronted shoreline maintenance) services, which interact in complex and dynamic ways. These services are under threat from climate change, requiring dynamic modelling approaches that predict how reef systems will respond to different future climate scenarios. Carbonate budgets, which estimate net reef calcium carbonate production, provide a comprehensive ‘snap-shot’ assessment of reef accretionary potential and reef stability. These budgets, however, were not intended to account for the full suite of processes that maintain coral reef services or to provide predictive capacity on longer timescales (decadal to centennial). To respond to the dual challenges of enhancing carbonate budget assessments and advancing their predictive capacity, we applied a novel model elicitation and review method to create a qualitative geo-ecological carbonate reef system model that links geomorphic, ecological and physical processes. Our approach conceptualizes relationships between net carbonate production, sediment transport and landform stability, and rates knowledge confidence to reveal major knowledge gaps and critical future research pathways. The model provides a blueprint for future coral reef research that aims to quantify net carbonate production and sediment dynamics, improving our capacity to predict responses of reefs and reef-fronted shorelines to future climate change.
地球生态碳酸盐礁系统对气候变化响应的预测:一个概念模型和综述
珊瑚礁提供重要的生态和地貌服务(例如,为维护珊瑚礁岸线而产生沉积物),这些服务以复杂和动态的方式相互作用。这些服务受到气候变化的威胁,需要动态建模方法来预测珊瑚礁系统将如何应对未来不同的气候情景。碳酸盐预算用于估算净礁碳酸钙产量,提供了对礁的增生潜力和稳定性的全面“快照”评估。然而,这些预算并不打算考虑维持珊瑚礁服务的整套过程,也不打算提供更长时间尺度(十年到百年)的预测能力。为了应对加强碳酸盐预算评估和提高其预测能力的双重挑战,我们采用了一种新颖的模型启发和回顾方法,建立了一个连接地貌、生态和物理过程的定性地生态碳酸盐礁系统模型。我们的方法概念化了净碳酸盐产量、沉积物运输和地貌稳定性之间的关系,并对知识信心进行了评估,以揭示主要的知识差距和关键的未来研究途径。该模型为未来的珊瑚礁研究提供了蓝图,旨在量化净碳酸盐产量和沉积物动态,提高我们预测珊瑚礁和珊瑚礁前海岸线对未来气候变化的反应的能力。
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期刊介绍: With increasing interest in the field and its relevance in global environmental issues, Oceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual Review provides authoritative reviews that summarize results of recent research in basic areas of marine research, exploring topics of special and topical importance while adding to new areas as they arise
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