Predictive power of fantasy sports data for soccer forecasting

IF 0.4 Q4 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

International Journal of Data Mining Modelling and Management Pub Date : 2015-05-12 DOI:10.1504/IJDMMM.2015.069247

Erik Å trumbelj, Marko Robnik-Å ikonja

引用次数: 2

Abstract

We analyse data from 5,000 competitors who participated in an online soccer managerial game which revolved around the English Premier League (EPL). We show that competitors incorporate into their decisions relevant information about the outcome of a soccer match. Furthermore, forecasts based on managerial game data are significantly better than random forecasts, forecasts based on relative frequency, and forecasts based on teams' attendance, but worse than bookmaker odds. Our work provides an evidence that crowds poses significant amount of information for the match outcome prediction.

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梦幻体育数据对足球预测的预测能力

我们分析了5000名竞争对手的数据，他们参加了一个围绕英超联赛(EPL)的在线足球管理游戏。我们展示了竞争对手将足球比赛结果的相关信息纳入他们的决策中。此外，基于管理层比赛数据的预测明显优于随机预测、基于相对频率的预测和基于球队出勤率的预测，但逊于博彩公司的赔率。我们的工作提供了一个证据，证明人群为比赛结果预测提供了大量的信息。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Data Mining Modelling and Management COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE-

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Facilitating transformation from data to information to knowledge is paramount for organisations. Companies are flooded with data and conflicting information, but with limited real usable knowledge. However, rarely should a process be looked at from limited angles or in parts. Isolated islands of data mining, modelling and management (DMMM) should be connected. IJDMMM highlightes integration of DMMM, statistics/machine learning/databases, each element of data chain management, types of information, algorithms in software; from data pre-processing to post-processing; between theory and applications. Topics covered include: -Artificial intelligence- Biomedical science- Business analytics/intelligence, process modelling- Computer science, database management systems- Data management, mining, modelling, warehousing- Engineering- Environmental science, environment (ecoinformatics)- Information systems/technology, telecommunications/networking- Management science, operations research, mathematics/statistics- Social sciences- Business/economics, (computational) finance- Healthcare, medicine, pharmaceuticals- (Computational) chemistry, biology (bioinformatics)- Sustainable mobility systems, intelligent transportation systems- National security