How Do Bankruptcies in the Shale Sector Induce Operators to Focus on Value Creation?

Abstract

Between January 2015 and early 2021, about 76 of the approximately 2,160 small-to-medium independent companies in the tight oil sector filed for Chapter 11 protection. These filings mostly occurred in 2016 and 2019. These companies were negatively impacted by the low oil prices in these years owing to their lack of financial discipline and poor financial risk assessments. As a result, they declared bankruptcy. News outlets tend to amplify bankruptcy filing announcements in the oil and gas sector. Nevertheless, our analysis shows that these bankruptcy declarations do not imply that the shale oil and gas sector collapsed. The ailing operators in 2019 were responsible for about 8.5% of total tight oil production in the United States. This volume did not disappear from the market because of the Chapter 11 provisions. Instead, the ailing operators either became more efficient and financially disciplined or transferred their assets to more efficient operators. Over 33 independent companies have ultimately emerged from bankruptcy. These companies successfully reached debt restructuring resolutions with their investors, transferred equity ownership to investors or sold or leased their assets to other operators. Companies that failed to adapt exited the oil market through either liquidation or acquisitions by other companies. Going forward, more consolidations are expected in the shale industry, especially among medium-to-large independent producers that accrued large debts in previous years. These producers will either enter bankruptcy owing to financial headwinds and market uncertainty or be acquired by larger companies. This analysis shows that bankruptcies in the tight oil sector may be viewed positively or negatively depending on the situation and perspective. Bankruptcies do incur different types of costs and losses to many parties. However, consolidation that improves the efficiency of resource allocation can be viewed as a positive sign for the economy. Operators, equity owners, debtors-in-possession and the oil and gas industry can therefore view bankruptcies within the industry differently.