Theoretical foundations of probabilistic and statistical forecasting of agrometeorological risks

Abstract

Еach model for forecasting agrometeorological risks based on the analysis of one-dimensional time series is effective for a certain range of initial information. In addition, the values of the initial observations can differ significantly for each specific case, respectively, the widespread use of one method for the analysis of arbitrary information can lead to significant inaccuracies. Thus, the problem of choosing a forecasting method for the initial set of agrometeorological data arises. In this regard, a universal adaptive probabilistic-statistical approach to predicting agrometeorological risks is proposed, which makes it possible to solve the problem of choosing a model. The article presents the results of the first stage of research carried out with the financial support of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation a brief overview of the current state of research in this direction is presented, theoretical foundations for predicting agrometeorological risks for a possible onset of drought and frost have been developed, including the task of generating initial information, a description of basic forecasting models, and also a direct description of the proposed approach with a presentation of the general structure of an intelligent system, on the basis of which the corresponding algorithm can be developed and automated as directions for further work.