Prediction modelling of riverine landscape dynamics in the context of sustainable management of floodplain: a Geospatial approach

Abstract

ABSTRACT Presently, sustainability of floodplain, a diverse element of the riverine landscape, provides an ideal research setting for investigating complex interaction between anthropogenic disturbance and eco-environmental degradation. Nowadays, these floodplains are continually degraded and fragmented on account of unsustainable land use. To analyse the spatial and temporal changes of landuse/landcover, a supervised classification (maximum likelihood algorithm) method has been made for the period 1998 to 2018. Present research simulates and predicts landuse/landcover dynamics of lower stretch of the Ganges river up to 2038 to analyse future riverine landscape dynamics stressed by various natural and socio-economic factors based on Cellular Automata-Artificial Neuron Network (CA-ANN) model clubbed with Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) plugin of QGIS software. Outcome of research reveals that the trend of agriculture land, sand, and inland waterbody areas is reduced by 15.75, 5.71, and 1.95%, whereas, for orchard, agricultural fallow and bare land areas increased by 7.94, 7.92, and 5.69% for the period from 1998 to 2018. The simulation model predicted a continuation of the similar trend till 2038. The significant reduction of agricultural land and sand areas is largely an attribute to floodplain degradation in an altered hydrological regime. Ultimately, hydro-morphological changes, increasing population pressure, and agriculture intensification in floodplain landscape were identified as main driving forces in temporal landuse/landcover changes. The prediction of future forecast indicates that if the present rate of landuse/landcover trend persists in the study stretch of Ganges river without appropriate sustainable development practice, severe floodplain degradation will ensue. This study provides a holistic measure for understanding long-term environmental degradation related to anthropogenic activities and impact of climate changes in floodplain landscape at local and regional scale.