Birth Seasonality in Russia: Regional Features

Abstract

In the article based on statistical methods the authors evaluateinterregional differences in seasonality of births in Russia and attempt toexplain the differences in the seasonality of the number of births in the regions of Russia. The relevance of these issues is explained by the need to monitor changes in demographic indicators following the implementation of national projects for the period up to the mid-2020s.The authors considered the most fundamental results of some domestic and foreign studies on this subject. Some hypotheses regarding the causes of the seasonality of births were tested using econometric tools (based on official birth statistics in the regions of the Russian Federation for the period 2006–2020).The statistically significant factors that form the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations were the degree of urbanization, income and the climate based on the OLS model. The amplitude of fluctuations in births decreased with an increase in the level of urbanization (growth in the share of the urban population) and the population of the region. An increase in January temperature increased the amplitude of birth fluctuations. The positive impact of income on the amplitude of the fluctuation was explained by the active planning of the timing of childbearing in high-income regions, but further research was needed. Nutritional characteristics were found to be statistically insignificant factors. The number of marriages took a special place in the formation of the seasonality of births. On the whole for the Russian Federation, based on time series models, a cointegration relationship between the number of marriages and the number of births was found. This relationship had begun to weaken over the past five years.