North Korean trade network adaptation strategies under sanctions: Implications for denuclearization

Justin V. Hastings
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

North Korean trade networks have adapted to international sanctions through a variety of strategies to solve the problem of operating in a hostile environment at both the global level, and at the local level. At the global level, they have engaged in obfuscation of the nature of trade and actors, use of state prerogatives and resource, and arbitraging the countries in which they operate. At the local cross-border level, North Korean trade networks maintain relationships with brokers that obfuscate their true nature, and engage in smuggling across the Chinese border by land, river, and sea. How North Korean trade networks have adapted to sanctions has implications for denuclearization. First, the sanctions-evading strategies used by North Korea in many respects originated in the changes wrought in the North Korean economy since the 1990s, and as such, they are likely to continue even if sanctions are loosened. Second, while North Korean trade networks have adapted to sanctions, this is not necessarily their optimal scenario for economic development, which has implications for Kim Jong-un's denuclearization strategy. Finally, the trade networks themselves can continue to be used as part of a hedging strategy by North Korea even if denuclearization is continuing apace, but this strategy requires the cooperation of non-North Korean businesses.

制裁下的朝鲜贸易网络适应策略:对无核化的影响
朝鲜的贸易网络已经通过各种战略适应了国际制裁,以解决在全球和地方两级敌对环境中经营的问题。在全球层面上,它们混淆了贸易和行为主体的性质,利用国家特权和资源,并在其开展业务的国家进行套利。在当地的跨境层面上,朝鲜的贸易网络与掮客保持着关系,掩盖了他们的真实本质,并通过陆路、水路和海路走私越过中国边境。朝鲜的贸易网络如何适应制裁对无核化有影响。首先,朝鲜在许多方面使用的规避制裁策略源于20世纪90年代以来朝鲜经济的变化,因此,即使制裁放松,它们也可能继续下去。其次,虽然朝鲜的贸易网络已经适应了制裁,但这并不一定是他们经济发展的最佳方案,这对金正恩的无核化战略有影响。最后,即使无核化继续快速推进,贸易网络本身也可以继续作为朝鲜对冲战略的一部分,但这一战略需要非朝鲜企业的合作。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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