Predictive Peacekeeping: Strengthening Predictive Analysis in UN Peace Operations

IF 0.6 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Stability-International Journal of Security and Development Pub Date : 2019-02-13 DOI:10.5334/STA.663

Allard Duursma, J. Karlsrud

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引用次数: 14

Abstract

The UN is becoming increasingly data-driven. Until recently, data-driven initiatives have mainly been led by individual UN field missions, but with Antonio Guterres, the new Secretary-General, a more centralized approach is being embarked on. With a trend towards the use of data to support the work of UN staff, the UN is likely to soon rely on systematic data analysis to draw patterns from the information that is gathered in and across UN field missions. This paper is based on UN peacekeeping data from the Joint Mission Analysis Centre (JMAC) in Darfur, and draws on interviews conducted in New York, Mali and Sudan. It will explore the practical and ethical implications of systematic data analysis in UN field missions. Systematic data analysis can help the leadership of field missions to decide where to deploy troops to protect civilians, guide conflict prevention efforts and help preempt threats to the mission itself. However, predictive analysis in UN peace operations will only be beneficial if it also leads to early action. Finally, predictive peacekeeping will not only be demanding of resources, it will also include ethical challenges on issues such as data privacy and the risk of reidentification of informants or other potentially vulnerable people.

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预测性维和:加强联合国和平行动的预测性分析

联合国越来越受到数据的驱动。直到最近，数据驱动的举措主要是由个别联合国外地特派团领导的，但随着新任秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯的上任，一种更加集中的方法正在开始。随着使用数据支持联合国工作人员工作的趋势，联合国可能很快就会依靠系统的数据分析，从联合国外地特派团内部和各特派团收集的信息中得出模式。本文基于达尔富尔联合任务分析中心(JMAC)的联合国维和数据，并借鉴了在纽约、马里和苏丹进行的采访。它将探讨联合国外地特派团系统数据分析的实际和伦理影响。系统的数据分析可以帮助外地特派团的领导决定在哪里部署部队以保护平民，指导预防冲突的工作，并帮助预防对特派团本身的威胁。然而，联合国和平行动中的预测分析只有在导致早期行动的情况下才会有益。最后，预测性维和不仅需要资源，还将面临数据隐私和重新识别线人或其他潜在弱势群体的风险等问题上的道德挑战。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Stability-International Journal of Security and Development INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

11 weeks

期刊介绍： Stability: International Journal of Security & Development is a fundamentally new kind of journal. Open-access, it publishes research quickly and free of charge in order to have a maximal impact upon policy and practice communities. It fills a crucial niche. Despite the allocation of significant policy attention and financial resources to a perceived relationship between development assistance, security and stability, a solid evidence base is still lacking. Research in this area, while growing rapidly, is scattered across journals focused upon broader topics such as international development, international relations and security studies. Accordingly, Stability''s objective is to: Foster an accessible and rigorous evidence base, clearly communicated and widely disseminated, to guide future thinking, policymaking and practice concerning communities and states experiencing widespread violence and conflict. The journal will accept submissions from a wide variety of disciplines, including development studies, international relations, politics, economics, anthropology, sociology, psychology and history, among others. In addition to focusing upon large-scale armed conflict and insurgencies, Stability will address the challenge posed by local and regional violence within ostensibly stable settings such as Mexico, Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and elsewhere.