Economic Modeling of Deviation Settlement under Solar Forecasting and Scheduling

Abstract

Recently many regulatory commissions have compulsion the Forecasting, Scheduling, Deviation Settlement of renewable sources on 15 Minute time block basis. According this regulation the developer has given an exact Scheduling and forecasting of generation within the permissible limit, if it crosses the limit than developer has to pay the deviation charges as decided by regulatory commission. In this paper we have did the economic modeling with possibility of error throughout the year with respect to variation of season, climate change etc. With some assumption we have calculated the deviation charges with possibility of error in Scheduling and forecasting based on that we have developed the economic modeling for Scheduling and forecasting and validate with some parameters which shows that the compulsion of Forecasting and scheduling of solar energy can leads to revenue loss from 0.05% to 2%.