Factors Influencing the Lao PDR Import Value of Processed Agricultural Products from Thailand during the Covid-19 Pandemic

IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Australasian Accounting Business and Finance Journal Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.14453/aabfj.v17i3.10

Thanet Wattanakul, Malliga Sompholkrang, Tanawat Watchalaanun

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Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the Lao macroeconomic factors of real gross domestic product, the Openness Index, and the exchange rate between the Thai and Lao currencies on the Lao import value of agricultural processed products from Thailand. Using product classifications and data from the International Trade Centre, this research examined the total import value (IM) and value of the imported product categories of sugar (HS17), flour (HS19), miscellaneous edible preparations (HS21), beverages (HS22), and animal fodder (HS23) (as dependent variables). The analysis employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach, and the Vector Error Correction Model was applied to analyze the level relationship and test causal relationships among variables by using quarterly time series data from Q1 2012 to Q3 2021. Results show long-run and short-run relationships between GDP and both IM and HS17, but only a long-run relationship with HS22 and a short-run effect on HS19. Following the effects of COVID-19, HS22 will be the fastest market to recover. GDP has the greatest effect on IM in the long run. Granger causality of real GDP was seen running to imports on IM, HS17, and HS19; Openness running to IM and HS19; and exchange rate running to HS17, HS19, HS21, and HS22, with only HS23 unaffected by any factor.

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新冠肺炎疫情期间影响老挝从泰国进口加工农产品价值的因素

本研究考察了老挝实际国内生产总值、开放指数、泰老货币汇率等宏观经济因素对老挝从泰国进口农产品加工品价值的影响。本研究利用产品分类和国际贸易中心的数据，考察了糖(HS17)、面粉(HS19)、杂项食用制剂(HS21)、饮料(HS22)和动物饲料(HS23)等进口产品类别的进口总值(IM)和价值(作为因变量)。分析采用自回归分布滞后(Autoregressive Distributed Lag)方法，利用2012年第一季度至2021年第三季度的季度时间序列数据，采用向量误差修正模型(Vector Error Correction Model)分析变量间的水平关系，检验变量间的因果关系。结果表明，GDP与IM和HS17之间存在长期和短期关系，但与HS22之间存在长期关系，对HS19存在短期影响。受新冠疫情影响，HS22将是恢复最快的市场。从长期来看，GDP对国际货币基金组织的影响最大。在IM、HS17和HS19上，实际GDP的格兰杰因果关系与进口有关;开放运行到IM和HS19;汇率运行到HS17, HS19, HS21和HS22，只有HS23不受任何因素的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Australasian Accounting Business and Finance Journal BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

15.80%

发文量

审稿时长

24 weeks

期刊介绍： The Australasian Accounting, Business and Finance Journal is a double blind peer reviewed academic journal. The main focus of our journal is to encourage research from areas of social and environmental critique, exploration and innovation as well as from more traditional areas of accounting, finance, financial planning and banking research. There are no fees or charges associated with submitting to or publishing in this journal.