Do Crude Oil Price Changes Affect Economic Welfare? Empirical Evidence from Ghana

Kofi Kamasa
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Abstract This paper sought to explore the impact of crude oil price changes on economic welfare in Ghana. The paper employed the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation technique on an annual time series data spanning 1983 – 2017. The findings revealed that crude oil price changes have a negative and significant impact on economic welfare in the short and long run, albeit marginal. In terms of covariates, the findings revealed that trade openness and gross fixed capital formation have positive and significant impact whilst interest rate have negative impact on economic welfare in both the short and long run. Foreign direct investment had a positive effect, albeit insignificant. The paper recommends among others, the hedging of prices with respect to imported crude oil so as to manage the risks associated with crude oil price changes on economic welfare.   Keywords: Economic Welfare; Crude Oil Prices Changes; Autoregressive Distributed Lag; Ghana
原油价格变动影响经济福利吗?来自加纳的经验证据
摘要本文旨在探讨原油价格变化对加纳经济福利的影响。本文采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)估计技术对1983 - 2017年的年度时间序列数据进行估计。研究结果表明,原油价格变化对经济福利在短期和长期都有显著的负面影响,尽管影响很小。在协变量方面,研究发现贸易开放程度和固定资本形成总额对经济福利具有显著的正向影响,而利率对经济福利的短期和长期影响均为负向影响。外国直接投资产生了积极影响,尽管微不足道。本文建议对进口原油的价格进行套期保值,以管理与原油价格变化有关的经济福利风险。关键词:经济福利;原油价格变动;自回归分布滞后;加纳
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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