Theoretical Expectations and Actual Outcomes of Electoral Systems: How to Measure the Size of the Deviation?

Q3 Social Sciences

World Political Science Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI:10.1515/WPS-2018-0008

Miroslav Nemčok, J. Sedó

引用次数: 2

Abstract

Abstract The article criticises current conceptual frameworks focused on the evaluation of the performance of electoral systems. It offers a new tool allowing researchers to measure the size of the deviation of electoral outcomes from theoretical expectations. The index d=log[NS/(MS)1/6] is built on the Seat Product (Taagepera, Rein (2007b) Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems. New York: Oxford University Press) and captures the deviations of electoral outcomes from predictions solely on the basis of two institutional factors – average district magnitude (M) and size of assembly (S). The theoretical background of index d is explained, and its reliability is further supported by conventional econometric methods based on empirical data.

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选举制度的理论预期与实际结果:如何衡量偏差的大小?

摘要本文批评了当前的概念框架，重点是对选举制度的绩效进行评估。它提供了一种新的工具，使研究人员能够衡量选举结果与理论预期的偏差程度。指数d=log[NS/(MS)1/6]是建立在席位产品(Taagepera, Rein, 2007b)预测政党规模:简单选举制度的逻辑上的。纽约:牛津大学出版社)，并仅根据两个制度因素-平均地区规模(M)和集会规模(S)捕获选举结果与预测的偏差。解释了指数d的理论背景，其可靠性进一步得到基于经验数据的传统计量经济学方法的支持。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

World Political Science Social Sciences-Political Science and International Relations

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： World Political Science (WPS) publishes translations of prize-winning articles nominated by prominent national political science associations and journals around the world. Scholars in a field as international as political science need to know about important political research produced outside the English-speaking world. Sponsored by the International Political Science Association (IPSA), the premiere global political science organization with membership from national assoications 50 countries worldwide WPS gathers together and translates an ever-increasing number of countries'' best political science articles, bridging the language barriers that have made this cutting-edge research inaccessible up to now. Articles in the World Political Science cover a wide range of subjects of interest to readers concerned with the systematic analysis of political issues facing national, sub-national and international governments and societies. Fields include Comparative Politics, International Relations, Political Sociology, Political Theory, Political Economy, and Public Administration and Policy. Anyone interested in the central issues of the day, whether they are students, policy makers, or other citizens, will benefit from greater familiarity with debates about the nature and solutions to social, economic and political problems carried on in non-English language forums.