Modeling and Analysis of Effect of Awareness Programs by Media on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic Disease

Abstract

This paper proposes and analyses a basic deterministic mathematical model to investigate Modeling and Analysis of effect of awareness program by media on the spread COVID-19 Pandemic Disease. The model has four non-linear differential equations, which describe the effects of awareness programs on the spread of COVID-19 Pandemic diseases such as flu has been proposed and analyzed. In the modeling process assumed that disease spreads due to the contact between susceptible and infective only. The growth rate of awareness programs influencing the population assumed to be proportional to the number of infective individuals. It further, assumed that due to the effect of media, susceptible individuals form a separate class and avoid contact with the infective. The model analyzed by using stability theory of differential equations. The model analysis shows that the spread of a COVID-19 Pandemic disease controlled by using awareness programs but the disease remains Pandemic due to immigration. The models analyzed qualitatively to determine criteria for control of the spread of COVID 19, and used to calculate the basic reproduction R0. The equilibrium of COVID 19 models is determined. In addition to having a disease-free equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable when the R0 < 1, the basic COVID 19 model manifest one's possession of (a quality of) the phenomenon of backward bifurcation where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists (at the same time) with a stable endemic equilibrium for a certain range of associated reproduction number less than one. The analysis and simulation results of the model suggested that the most effective strategies for controlling or eradicating the spread of COVID 19 pandemic were suggest using that awareness programs through the media campaigning are helpful in decreasing the spread of COVID 19 Pandemic diseases by isolating a fraction of susceptible from infective.