Long-term prediction of solar activity

Abstract

After reviewing the various methods used so far in the long-term prediction of solar activity, we have opted to use methods based on the 80-year period and probability considerations. Our predictions for Cycle No. 21 are:

• 1.

  Maximum of the annual average Wolf number: 54 – 94

• 2.

  Minimum of the annual average Wolf number: 0 – 4

• 3.

  Epoch of maximum: first half of 1981 - first half of 1983

• 4.

  Epoch of minimum: first half of 1976 - first half of 1977

A comparison of our predictions with others is made.