Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States

IF 3.1 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Olivia L. Miller , Annie L. Putman , Jay Alder , Matthew Miller , Daniel K. Jones , Daniel R. Wise
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引用次数: 30

Abstract

Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management decisions. To address this need, we estimate future streamflow in seven water resource regions in the southwestern U.S. using a new SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) streamflow model. We present streamflow projections corresponding to input data from seven climate models and two greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) for three, thirty-year intervals centered on the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, and for a historical thirty year interval centered on the 1990s. Across water resource regions, about half of the RCP4.5 models (51%) and two thirds of the RCP8.5 models (67%) indicate decreases in streamflow in the 2080s relative to the historical period. Models project maximum decreases in streamflow of 36–80% in all water resource regions for all periods and RCPs relative to historical streamflow, and maximum streamflow decreases of up to 20–45% in the 2080s at sites along the Colorado River used for measuring compliance with interstate and international water agreements. Headwaters are projected to experience the greatest declines, with substantial downstream implications. Among these estimates, the streamflows from models forced with RCP8.5 tend to be lower than those forced with RCP4.5. Not all climate models, times, and RCPs project widespread streamflow declines. The most ubiquitous streamflow increases are projected to occur in the 2030s under RCP4.5. Later time periods and enhanced greenhouse gas forcings indicate smaller regions of streamflow increase and lower accumulated streamflows, suggesting that limiting or reducing greenhouse gas concentrations could support future water availability. Although some possible streamflow increases are promising, the modest and spatially limited increases in streamflow projected for later time periods are still unlikely to be sufficient to meet the projected water demand. These results inform the likelihood of future water agreement compliance, and support developing strategies to balance water supply and demand.

气候变化导致未来流量下降,并对满足美国西南部的用水需求提出挑战
干旱的美国西南部的社会和环境依赖于可靠的水资源,但目前的用水超过了供应。预计未来水需求将增长,气候变化预计将减少供应。为了适应这种情况,水资源管理者需要对未来区域供水进行强有力的估计,以支持管理决策。为了满足这一需求,我们使用一个新的流域属性空间参考回归(SPARROW)流量模型来估计美国西南部七个水资源区的未来流量。我们提出了与七个气候模型和两个温室气体代表性浓度路径(RCP4.5和8.5)的输入数据相对应的流量预测,以2030年代、2050年代和2080年代为中心,以20世纪90年代为中心的30年历史间隔。在水资源区域,大约一半的RCP4.5模型(51%)和三分之二的RCP8.5模型(67%)表明,与历史时期相比,2080年代的流量有所下降。模型预测,相对于历史流量,所有时期和RCP的所有水资源区域的流量最大下降幅度为36%-80%,科罗拉多河沿岸用于衡量州际和国际水协议合规性的地点在2080年代的最大流量下降幅度高达20-45%。预计水头将出现最大的下降,并对下游产生重大影响。在这些估计中,采用RCP8.5的模型的流量往往低于采用RCP4.5的模型。并非所有的气候模型、时间和RCP都预测出大范围的流量下降。根据RCP4.5,预计最普遍的流量增长将发生在2030年代。后期和温室气体强迫的增强表明,流量增加的区域较小,累积流量较低,这表明限制或降低温室气体浓度可以支持未来的水资源利用。尽管一些可能的流量增加是有希望的,但预计未来一段时间内流量的适度和空间有限的增加仍然不足以满足预计的用水需求。这些结果为未来遵守供水协议的可能性提供了信息,并支持制定平衡供水和需求的战略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrology X
Journal of Hydrology X Environmental Science-Water Science and Technology
CiteScore
7.00
自引率
2.50%
发文量
20
审稿时长
25 weeks
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