Market States and Lottery Preference: Evidence from Chinese Open-End Funds*

Abstract

Recent studies find that investors prefer funds with lottery-like payoffs. Using a sample of Chinese open-end funds, we show that investors' preference for funds' extreme positive payoffs (MAXs) depend on the state of the market: it is significant for MAXs in an unfavorable market but weak or reversed for those in a favorable market. Such state-dependent preference is irrational because, inconsistent with the flow–MAX relationship, higher MAXs under market downturns are associated with worse performance. We further document support for the salience-theory-based explanation for investors' preference and provide counter-evidence for alternative mechanisms based on rational choice or changes in aggregate flows.