Scenario analysis and early warning systems at Daimler-Benz aerospace

Abstract

Among competitive intelligence professionals there is a perceived need to be more predictive of possible future events. By using scenario development designed to provide decision makers with insight into future possibilities, CI professionals can make significant contributions to corporate strategic planning. Based on scenarios, a strategic early warning system can be developed by the constant monitoring of the company's vital statistics—financial situation, deliveries, orders received, etc. These “signals” may not be able to be classified at the moment, but should be collected and analyzed for trends. Scenario planning points out the most important areas for monitoring. The author describes competitor analysis at Daimler-Benz Aerospace, where competitive monitoring is conducted through a strategic early warning system given its direction by scenario analysis, and how the analysis results are used to influence strategic decisions. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.