Framingham equations overestimate risk of coronary heart disease mortality in British males

Mandeep Singh MD, FACC (Commentary Author)
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Question

What is the predictive accuracy of the Framingham risk score for coronary heart disease in a UK population?

Study Design

Prospective cohort study.

Main results

The Framingham equation significantly over-predicted 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality (predicted mortality 4.1% vs. observed mortality 2.8%; over-prediction of risk 47%; P<0.0001 for goodness of fit). The Framingham equation significantly over-predicted 10 year CHD event rate (predicted event rate 16.0% vs. observed event rate 10.2%; over-prediction of risk 57%; P<0.0001 for goodness of fit).

Authors’ conclusions

The Framingham equations over-predict risk of CHD mortality and all fatal and non-fatal CHD events in a representative sample of British men. The disparity seen is likely to represent actual differences in the levels of CHD risk in the Framingham population and the British male population.

弗雷明汉方程高估了英国男性冠心病死亡率的风险
问题在英国人群中,Framingham冠心病风险评分的预测准确性是多少?研究设计前瞻性队列研究。主要结果Framingham方程显著高于预测的10年冠心病(CHD)死亡率(预测死亡率4.1%对观察死亡率2.8%;风险预测过高47%;拟合优度P<;0.0001)。Framingham方程显著高于预测的10年CHD事件率(预测事件率16.0%对观察事件率10.2%;风险预测率57%;拟合优度P<;0.0001)。作者结论Framingham方程式在英国男性代表性样本中过度预测CHD死亡率和所有致命和非致命CHD事件的风险。所看到的差异可能代表了弗雷明汉人群和英国男性人群CHD风险水平的实际差异。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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