Some new results on the estimation of structural budget balance for Spain

IF 0.7 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI:10.7866/HPE-RPE.14.3.1

Pilar Poncela, Eva Senra, Daniel F. Sotelsek, Guido Zack

引用次数: 6

Abstract

The recession that started in 2008 caused a sharp deterioration of the budget balance of Spain. This de-cline was not fully anticipated by the structural budget balance due to some methodology limitations. In this article, we calculate an alternative structural balance for Spain in the years prior to the subprime crisis that includes residential investment as an explanatory variable. This estimate shows that by 2004the Spanish fiscal situation was not as strong as presumed. This fragility was hidden by the extraordinary revenue from the real estate bubble and the construction boom.

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西班牙结构性预算平衡估算的一些新结果

始于2008年的经济衰退导致西班牙预算平衡急剧恶化。由于一些方法上的限制，结构性预算平衡没有充分预料到这种下降。在本文中，我们计算了西班牙在次贷危机前几年的替代结构平衡，其中包括住宅投资作为解释变量。这一估计表明，到2004年，西班牙的财政状况并不像预期的那样强劲。这种脆弱性被房地产泡沫和建筑业繁荣带来的巨额收入所掩盖。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Finance

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

14.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： Hacienda Pública Española/Review of Public Economics welcomes submissions on all areas of public economics. We seek to publish original and innovative research, applied and theoretical, related to the economic analysis of Government intervention. For example, but not exclusively: Taxation, Redistribution, Health, Education, Pensions, Governance, Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Federalism. In addition to regular submissions, the journal welcomes submissions of: -Survey Reviews, containing surveys of the literature regarding issues of interest in the Public Economics field; -Policy oriented reviews, showing the current contributions of Public Economics in relation to relevant contemporary issues affecting public decision-makers in the real world (Policy Watch); -Comments of previously published articles. Contributions to this section should be limited to a maximum of 2 000 words (12 pages). If deemed adequate, the authors of the commented article will be given the opportunity to react in a Reply. Both Comment and Reply will be published together. Articles for the Survey Reviews and Policy Watch section are subject to the same double blind reviwing procedure. The adequacy of Comments submitted for publication will be evaluated by the Executive Editors.