Assessment of Political Situation over the Business Cycle in Spain: A Time Series Analysis

IF 0.7 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI:10.7866/hpe-rpe.15.2.2

M. Diaz, G. Miguez, B. Manzano, J. Moreno

引用次数: 13

Abstract

The Great Recession has implied a strong increase of the unemployment rate in Spain that surpassed 25% in 2012, the highest rate in western economies in that year. At the same time, the assessment of political situation has greatly deteriorated. The goal of this paper is to study how the assessment of political situation has moved along the business cycle in Spain over the last twenty years by using a battery of statistical methods. Moreover, this study also investigates the existence of a long-run relationship applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. Once the existence of a long-run relationship is evidenced, we construct a model that allows us to quantitatively evaluate the impact of the business cycle on the Spanish political situation. The empirical findings reveal that the unemployment rate has had a significant lagged impact on the assessment of political situation.

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西班牙经济周期中的政治形势评估:一个时间序列分析

大衰退意味着西班牙失业率大幅上升，2012年失业率超过25%，是当年西方经济体中最高的。与此同时，对政治局势的评估也大大恶化。本文的目的是通过使用一系列统计方法，研究过去二十年来西班牙政治局势的评估如何随着商业周期的变化而变化。此外，本研究还应用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)边界检验方法对协整进行了长期关系的存在性研究。一旦证明了长期关系的存在，我们就构建了一个模型，使我们能够定量评估商业周期对西班牙政治局势的影响。实证结果表明，失业率对政治形势的评估具有显著的滞后影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Finance

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

14.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： Hacienda Pública Española/Review of Public Economics welcomes submissions on all areas of public economics. We seek to publish original and innovative research, applied and theoretical, related to the economic analysis of Government intervention. For example, but not exclusively: Taxation, Redistribution, Health, Education, Pensions, Governance, Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Federalism. In addition to regular submissions, the journal welcomes submissions of: -Survey Reviews, containing surveys of the literature regarding issues of interest in the Public Economics field; -Policy oriented reviews, showing the current contributions of Public Economics in relation to relevant contemporary issues affecting public decision-makers in the real world (Policy Watch); -Comments of previously published articles. Contributions to this section should be limited to a maximum of 2 000 words (12 pages). If deemed adequate, the authors of the commented article will be given the opportunity to react in a Reply. Both Comment and Reply will be published together. Articles for the Survey Reviews and Policy Watch section are subject to the same double blind reviwing procedure. The adequacy of Comments submitted for publication will be evaluated by the Executive Editors.