Impact of climate change on snowpack and avalanches in Slovenia: The Soča Valley case study

Abstract

The article discusses avalanche occurrence in the Slovenian Alps (SE Alps) in the context of climate change. It analyses the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and maximum snow depth over the last two centuries, and the relationships between maximum snow depth and avalanches over the last three decades. We argue that higher temperatures lead to precipitation in the form of rain at higher elevations even in winter, so that major wet avalanches occur already in winter rather than in early spring, as was more common in the past. A case study of extreme avalanches in January 2021 is presented to support the hypothesis.