Implications of formal security theories on COVID-19 crisis management

N. Stanković
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Abstract

The growing "chaotic" potential of modern crises, such as the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, imposes an urgent need to review the existing and find more flexible methodological tools, in order to strengthen preparedness and timely response to the crisis. By analyzing various aspects of managing the current crisis situation, it is suggested that the application of different methods of mathematical-operational research would result in potentially new and significant insights into this complex problem situation. The paper, therefore, seeks to point out the implications of formal security theories and different theoretical models of resilience on COVID-19 crisis management. First, the application of deterministic chaos theory as a tool for early warning and, thus, avoiding strategic surprises is suggested. In that way, the threatening "chaotic" potential of the risks that could be seen would be recognized. Furthermore, predictive models, as a "part" of the apparatus of certain versions of game theory, can contribute to more optimal strategic decision-making, in terms of making decisions that would maximize the "usefulness" of the outcome of the actors themselves (primarily towards "nature"), i.e. minimize inevitable negative side effects. Finally, the potential of the application of various multivariate techniques for making the most valid decisions at the tactical and operational level is pointed out. Finally, models of resilience are presented, each of which has the potential to analyze the impact of certain aspects of managing the current crisis situation.
形式安全理论对新冠肺炎危机管理的启示
现代危机(如COVID-19大流行造成的危机)的“混乱”可能性越来越大,迫切需要审查现有的方法并找到更灵活的方法工具,以加强对危机的准备和及时应对。通过分析管理当前危机形势的各个方面,建议应用不同的数学运筹学方法将导致对这一复杂问题形势的潜在的新的和重要的见解。因此,本文试图指出形式安全理论和不同的弹性理论模型对COVID-19危机管理的影响。首先,建议应用确定性混沌理论作为预警工具,从而避免战略意外。这样,可以看到的危险的“混乱”潜在威胁就会得到承认。此外,预测模型作为某些版本的博弈论工具的“一部分”,可以有助于更优化的战略决策,就决策而言,将行为者本身的结果的“有用性”最大化(主要是针对“自然”),即最小化不可避免的负面影响。最后,指出了应用各种多元技术在战术和作战层面做出最有效决策的潜力。最后,提出了弹性模型,每个模型都有可能分析管理当前危机局势的某些方面的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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