A Mathematical Study of Pandemic COVID-19 Virus with Special Emphasis on Uncertain Environments

IF 0.6 Q3 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Applied Nonlinear Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.5890/jand.2022.06.012

Subhashis Das, Prasenjit Mahato, S. Mahato, Debkumar Pal

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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Background & objectives: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a highly infectious virus which causes the severe respiratory disease for human also known as Coronavirus Disease (COVID) emerged in China in December 2019 that spread rapidly all over the world. As there is no proper medicine or vaccine against the virus SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 to control the spread of the virus, all the countries are taking many steps as preventive measures, like lockdown, stay-at-home, social distancing, sanitization, use of mask, etc. For almost three months of lockdown many countries are relaxing the lockdown period and the movement of people. The objective of this study is to develop a new mathematical model, called the SEIQRS model in imprecise environment and to find out the essentiality of quarantine, stay-at-home orders, lockdown as precautionary measures to protect the human community. Methods: In this study, after developing the COVID-19 SEIQRS model, the SEIQRS fuzzy model and the SEIQRS interval model are constructed by taking parameters as triangular fuzzy numbers and interval numbers respectively. Solution curves are drawn for two imprecise models by using MATLAB R2014a software package and the sensitivity analysis is also performed with respect to the control parameters. The next generation matrix approach is adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R0) from the SEIQRS model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Results: The basic reproduction number (R0) is calculated for this model and to get the stability and disease free equilibrium the value of the basic reproduction number must be less than 1. Also, we find the solution curves in different uncertain environments and sensitivity studies show the importance of newly added population (α), rate of spreading asymptomatic infection (β ), rate of developing symptoms of infection (λ ), proportion of infected population in quarantine (γ ). Interpretation & conclusions: Our model shows that quarantine, lockdown are essential to control the spread of the disease as at present there is no such medicine or vaccine to combat COVID-19. Once the virus establishes transmission within the community, it will very difficult to stop the infection. As a measure of public health, healthcare and community preparedness, it would be serious to control any impending outbreak of COVID-19 in the country. © 2022 L&H Scientific Publishing, LLC. All rights reserved

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基于不确定环境的COVID-19大流行病毒的数学研究

背景与目的:严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒-2 (SARS-CoV-2)是一种高传染性病毒，于2019年12月在中国出现，导致人类严重呼吸道疾病，也称为冠状病毒病(COVID)，并在全球迅速传播。由于没有合适的药物或疫苗来控制病毒的传播，各国都采取了许多预防措施，如封锁、居家、保持社交距离、消毒、使用口罩等。在近三个月的封锁期间，许多国家正在放松封锁期和人员流动。本研究的目的是建立一种新的数学模型，即不精确环境下的SEIQRS模型，并找出隔离、居家隔离、封锁作为保护人类社区的预防措施的必要性。方法:本研究在建立COVID-19 SEIQRS模型后，分别以参数为三角模糊数和区间数构建SEIQRS模糊模型和SEIQRS区间模型。利用MATLAB R2014a软件包绘制了两个不精确模型的解曲线，并对控制参数进行了灵敏度分析。采用下一代矩阵法，从SEIQRS模型计算基本繁殖数(R0)，评估SARS-CoV-2的传播能力。结果:计算了该模型的基本繁殖数(R0)，基本繁殖数必须小于1才能达到稳定和无病平衡。此外，我们发现在不同不确定环境下的解曲线和敏感性研究表明，新增人群(α)、无症状感染者传播率(β)、出现感染症状率(λ)、隔离感染人群比例(γ)的重要性。解释和结论:我们的模型显示，隔离和封锁对于控制疾病的传播至关重要，因为目前没有这样的药物或疫苗来对抗COVID-19。一旦病毒在社区内传播，就很难阻止感染。作为公共卫生、医疗保健和社区准备的一项措施，控制即将在该国爆发的COVID-19疫情将是一项严肃的工作。©2022 L&H科学出版有限责任公司版权所有

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来源期刊

Journal of Applied Nonlinear Dynamics Engineering-Mechanical Engineering

CiteScore

1.20

自引率

20.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The aim of the journal is to stimulate more research interest and attention for nonlinear dynamical behaviors and engineering nonlinearity for design. The manuscripts in complex dynamical systems with nonlinearity and chaos are solicited, which includes physical mechanisms of complex systems and engineering applications of nonlinear dynamics. The journal provides a place to researchers for the rapid exchange of ideas and techniques in nonlinear dynamics and engineering nonlinearity for design. Topics of Interest Complex dynamics in engineering Nonlinear vibration and dynamics for design Nonlinear dynamical systems and control Fractional dynamics and applications Chemical dynamics and bio-systems Economical dynamics and predictions Dynamical systems synchronization Bio-mechanical systems and devices Nonlinear structural dynamics Nonlinear multi-body dynamics Multiscale wave propagation in materials Nonlinear rotor dynamics Nonlinear waves and acoustics.