Economic and geopolitical aspect of the EU-China bilateral relations

G. Nikolić, P. Petrović, Jelena Zvezdanovic-Lobanova
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Abstract

The expected economic growth of the EU27 and China by 2025 will lead to a further increase in the share of the Chinese economy in world GDP and the overtaking of the EU economy in 2022. The main contribution of this paper is the presentation and analysis of IMF projected GDPs for China and the EU27 in the period 2020-25, and assessing the impact of divergent GDP growth trends of the two economic giants on the further development in their bilateral relations. Namely, since the change in the global economic position causes geopolitical consequences, it is clear that the very expectation of such trends influences the decisions of political and economic actors today - such as the signing of the investment agreement between Brussels and Beijing, despite Washington's opposition. The EU's response to China's growing influence could be an attempt to mitigate Beijing's strategic challenge by creating a stronger transatlantic partnership, but it is uncertain that Washington will be willing to offer significant concessions to Brussels. An alternative scenario could involve strengthening the EU's "strategic autonomy", which would imply an attempt at a more independent geopolitical positioning, which would enable better relations with China and easier access to the country's huge market. The EU, the world's largest trading bloc and the largest trading partner of as many as 80 countries, will find it difficult to come to terms with its subordinate role in Sino-US competition and will remain focused on exploring synergies with both powers.
中欧双边关系的经济和地缘政治方面
预计到2025年,欧盟27国和中国的经济增长将导致中国经济占世界GDP的比重进一步提高,并在2022年超过欧盟经济。本文的主要贡献在于提出并分析了IMF对中国和欧盟27国在2020- 2025年期间的GDP预测,并评估了这两个经济巨人不同的GDP增长趋势对双边关系进一步发展的影响。也就是说,由于全球经济地位的变化导致地缘政治后果,很明显,正是对这种趋势的预期影响了当今政治和经济行为体的决定——例如,布鲁塞尔和北京不顾华盛顿的反对签署了投资协议。欧盟对中国日益增长的影响力的回应,可能是试图通过建立更强大的跨大西洋伙伴关系来减轻北京方面的战略挑战,但不确定华盛顿是否愿意向布鲁塞尔做出重大让步。另一种情况可能涉及加强欧盟的“战略自主权”,这意味着欧盟试图建立更独立的地缘政治定位,从而改善与中国的关系,并更容易进入中国巨大的市场。作为全球最大的贸易集团和多达80个国家的最大贸易伙伴,欧盟将很难接受自己在中美竞争中的从属地位,并将继续专注于探索与这两个大国的协同效应。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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