Mathematical Model for Stroke and White Matter Hyperintensities

Abstract

A mathematical model was developed to predict the risk of having a stroke as a person ages. The age component was derived from the concept that the change in risk of stroke with age is a function of the current risk of developing a stroke. This equation modeled the trend with age reported in the literature for two different data sets with R 2 values of 0.97 or better for both men and women. A second equation of a similar nature was developed to predict the accumulation of white matter hyperintensities, WMH, as a person ages. It appears that each equation includes a set of common risk factors. This set of common risk factors allows an individual’s risk for stroke to be based on measured WMH. A third equation links WMH with the risk of developing a stroke. This equation allows an individual to use measured WMH from brain scans to predict the future risk of developing a stroke. In theory, a person with a relatively high measurement of WMH can project future risk for stroke with age and use counter measures such as exercise and medications to keep other risk factors low as a person continues to age.